“We will win in Mainz on Saturday,” Hoffenheim owner Dietmar Hopp told Rhein-Neckar-Zeitung last week. But not even the words of a billionaire could stop Mainz from writing the next chapter in their fairytale season. Hoffenheim played well, but their hosts were even better as they played their way to a 4-2 victory, and equalled a Bundesliga record with their seventh consecutive victory to start the season.
The next day Dortmund followed suit, claiming a fully deserved 2-0 victory over Bayern. Their three points not only kept the Ruhr side within striking distance of the lead, but created a sizeable gap between the pack and the near untouchable leaders. One would have to expect that Hannover and Freiburg at least will fall out of the top five by the end of the season, and that the likes of St Pauli, Nuernberg and Frankfurt will also fail to qualify for Europe. With all of the above excluded, Dortmund are six points clear of Leverkusen, seven ahead of Hoffenheim and Hamburg, eight up on Wolfsburg, and have a 10-point cushion on both Bayern and Bremen. Schalke aren’t even on the same map. Mainz have the same lead over each team as Dortmund, plus three points.
In recent days, coaches Thomas Tuchel and Juergen Klopp (of Mainz and Dortmund, respectively) have talked down their title chances, claiming the the others could well catch up. Klopp even went so far as to say such talks would be “hare-brained” given that it’s “only October”.
But is it really outrageous to start talking about the title at this stage in the campaign? Over the last two years, which have seen a massive spike in the Bundesliga’s quality and competitiveness, Wolfsburg and Bayern needed no more than 70 points to win the title. Especially given the usual favourites’ struggles this year, one can only expect that a similar quota, or less, will be sufficient to win the league this year. With 27 games to go, Mainz need 49 points; Dortmund 52.
It may sound like a mountain to climb, but the tally means that Mainz require an entirely attainable 16 wins and a draw (or any permutation of wins and draws that adds up to 49 points) to take the title. Still to be played are fixtures against Freiburg, Hannover, Gladbach, Nuernberg, Frankfurt and St Pauli (both home and away), as well as Kaiserslautern and Koeln (both away), in which the Oh Fives will surely be considered favourites. If they win the above matches, Mainz can lose their spring matches against Bayern, Wolfsburg, (a presumably improved) Schalke, and more, and still win the league.
Dortmund have a bit steeper of a hill to climb, but could make up the difference should they beat Mainz at the end of this month. The Ruhr side could potentially hoist the title with 17 wins and a draw out of their next 27 matches, though they still have to play many of their toughest matches on the road. While some have claimed that Mainz are just a couple injuries away from a potential freefall, Dortmund (who were missing three key starters on Sunday) arguably have more strength in depth than any of their Bundesliga rivals.
The above calculations are, of course, almost completely independent of the performance of other title contenders. This means to say that even if there weren’t such a large gap between the top two teams and the usual contenders, Mainz and Dortmund could both hit 70 points, and with that tally, place first and second in the league. But there does exist a large gap, which of course will play in their favour.
In the last five years, only Stuttgart (2007), and Bayern (2006, 2008, and 2010) have reached the 70-point plateau. But at the moment, the Swabians are on the road to relegation, and dreams of reaching 70 points are rapidly turning into fantasy for the Bavarians. The cold reality is that Bayern will fail to reach the critical mark if they drop more than 19 points between now and the end of May. They’re only 10 draws away from an almost definite goal of second place.
Never-say-die fans may contend that Bayern were in a similar situation last year, but the truth is that this year their room for error is much smaller, and it is diminishing with every week. The record champions have never had a worse start to the season, and, should they win next week, Mainz will make history for having the best ever start to a Bundesliga campaign. While a comeback is still possible, one to such an extent is without precedent. At their rate, Bayern may be ruled out of contention by Christmas.
Of course, I’m not going to call the title race quite yet. After all, before Mainz, neither of the other two teams that won their first seven matches (Bayern 1995-96 and Kaiserslautern 2001-02) went on to win the title. Dortmund have to favour their odds, though - in both of those campaigns BvB went on to win the Bundesliga.
Player of the Week: Lewis Holtby, Mainz
Goal of the Week: Sami Allagui, Mainz 1-0 Hoffenheim (skip to 0:30)
Match of the Week: Mainz 4-2 Hoffenheim
Points Of Discussion:
-It would be criminally negligent not to take a closer look at Mainz’s victory over Hoffenheim. That match truly captured the essence of all that is great about the Bundesliga. Both teams played aggressive, attacking football, and there were goals aplenty. Lewis Holtby had a hand in all four Mainz strikes, including the goal of the week (see above), which he set up with a glorious and deceptively skillful through ball. His performance is reminiscent of a certain Mesut Oezil, who last fall scored a goal and assisted four more in Werder Bremen’s 6-0 thumping of Freiburg.
-Dortmund’s victory solidified Nuri Sahin’s status as, at the moment, the Bundesliga’s best midfielder. The 22-year old was outstanding in distribution, and netted a brilliant free kick. His play seems to be almost effortless - elegant is the only way to describe his play. At the moment, not even Bastian Schweinsteiger is worthy of polishing Sahin’s boots.
-On the topic of Schweinsteiger, the Bayern man has sustained a ligament injury, and will miss Germany’s upcoming Euro 2012 qualifiers against Turkey and Kazakhstan. At the time of this publication, it has yet to be revealed how long he will be sidelined, but at this moment, Bayern coach Louis van Gaal must be cursing his luck. Schweinsteiger was one of very few Bayern players to exhibit any kind of form thus far.
-Still on the topic of Bayern, here’s a joke. Following the Dortmund match, captain Mark van Bommel, with typical reserve, said, “In every game, we are the better team.”
-More interesting than Van Bommel’s words were those of Uli Hoeness, who said, “The time has come for us to stop deceiving ourselves.”
Deceiving themselves...like believing that without summer transfers, their squad had both the quality and depth required to win the Bundesliga? Or was he making a not-so-subtle reference to the contract extension offered to coach Louis van Gaal last week, despite Bayern being off to their worst ever start to a Bundesliga campaign?
-Life in Gelsenkirchen isn’t any better, though Schalke’s problems are being met with a bit more anger. After his team lost 2-1 to Nuernberg, coach Felix Magath fumed: “I am absolutely unhappy with what my team showed today...These are difficult times for Schalke, for our fans, and hopefully also for the players. Probably some of them were already thinking about the trip home and to their national teams.”
Schalke still have just four points from seven matches, and remain in 17th place domestically. They were outstanding in midweek against Benfica (fully deserving of their 2-0 victory), but Saturday’s performance proved they have yet to turn the corner, at least as a collective team.
Meanwhile, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar has quietly scored five goals in his last five games in all competitions. All he needs is a little more support from an otherwise faltering team.
-Papiss Demba Cisse: seven goals in as many matches. Freiburg: fifth in the table and ahead of Bayern, Schalke, Bremen, Hamburg, Wolfsburg, and Stuttgart. Who would have thought?
-Patrick Helmes: seven appearances for club and country, eight goals. And yet he was omitted from Loew’s squad for the Euro qualifiers. Surprising, isn’t it?
The next day Dortmund followed suit, claiming a fully deserved 2-0 victory over Bayern. Their three points not only kept the Ruhr side within striking distance of the lead, but created a sizeable gap between the pack and the near untouchable leaders. One would have to expect that Hannover and Freiburg at least will fall out of the top five by the end of the season, and that the likes of St Pauli, Nuernberg and Frankfurt will also fail to qualify for Europe. With all of the above excluded, Dortmund are six points clear of Leverkusen, seven ahead of Hoffenheim and Hamburg, eight up on Wolfsburg, and have a 10-point cushion on both Bayern and Bremen. Schalke aren’t even on the same map. Mainz have the same lead over each team as Dortmund, plus three points.
In recent days, coaches Thomas Tuchel and Juergen Klopp (of Mainz and Dortmund, respectively) have talked down their title chances, claiming the the others could well catch up. Klopp even went so far as to say such talks would be “hare-brained” given that it’s “only October”.
But is it really outrageous to start talking about the title at this stage in the campaign? Over the last two years, which have seen a massive spike in the Bundesliga’s quality and competitiveness, Wolfsburg and Bayern needed no more than 70 points to win the title. Especially given the usual favourites’ struggles this year, one can only expect that a similar quota, or less, will be sufficient to win the league this year. With 27 games to go, Mainz need 49 points; Dortmund 52.
It may sound like a mountain to climb, but the tally means that Mainz require an entirely attainable 16 wins and a draw (or any permutation of wins and draws that adds up to 49 points) to take the title. Still to be played are fixtures against Freiburg, Hannover, Gladbach, Nuernberg, Frankfurt and St Pauli (both home and away), as well as Kaiserslautern and Koeln (both away), in which the Oh Fives will surely be considered favourites. If they win the above matches, Mainz can lose their spring matches against Bayern, Wolfsburg, (a presumably improved) Schalke, and more, and still win the league.
Dortmund have a bit steeper of a hill to climb, but could make up the difference should they beat Mainz at the end of this month. The Ruhr side could potentially hoist the title with 17 wins and a draw out of their next 27 matches, though they still have to play many of their toughest matches on the road. While some have claimed that Mainz are just a couple injuries away from a potential freefall, Dortmund (who were missing three key starters on Sunday) arguably have more strength in depth than any of their Bundesliga rivals.
The above calculations are, of course, almost completely independent of the performance of other title contenders. This means to say that even if there weren’t such a large gap between the top two teams and the usual contenders, Mainz and Dortmund could both hit 70 points, and with that tally, place first and second in the league. But there does exist a large gap, which of course will play in their favour.
In the last five years, only Stuttgart (2007), and Bayern (2006, 2008, and 2010) have reached the 70-point plateau. But at the moment, the Swabians are on the road to relegation, and dreams of reaching 70 points are rapidly turning into fantasy for the Bavarians. The cold reality is that Bayern will fail to reach the critical mark if they drop more than 19 points between now and the end of May. They’re only 10 draws away from an almost definite goal of second place.
Never-say-die fans may contend that Bayern were in a similar situation last year, but the truth is that this year their room for error is much smaller, and it is diminishing with every week. The record champions have never had a worse start to the season, and, should they win next week, Mainz will make history for having the best ever start to a Bundesliga campaign. While a comeback is still possible, one to such an extent is without precedent. At their rate, Bayern may be ruled out of contention by Christmas.
Of course, I’m not going to call the title race quite yet. After all, before Mainz, neither of the other two teams that won their first seven matches (Bayern 1995-96 and Kaiserslautern 2001-02) went on to win the title. Dortmund have to favour their odds, though - in both of those campaigns BvB went on to win the Bundesliga.
Player of the Week: Lewis Holtby, Mainz
Goal of the Week: Sami Allagui, Mainz 1-0 Hoffenheim (skip to 0:30)
Match of the Week: Mainz 4-2 Hoffenheim
Points Of Discussion:
-It would be criminally negligent not to take a closer look at Mainz’s victory over Hoffenheim. That match truly captured the essence of all that is great about the Bundesliga. Both teams played aggressive, attacking football, and there were goals aplenty. Lewis Holtby had a hand in all four Mainz strikes, including the goal of the week (see above), which he set up with a glorious and deceptively skillful through ball. His performance is reminiscent of a certain Mesut Oezil, who last fall scored a goal and assisted four more in Werder Bremen’s 6-0 thumping of Freiburg.
-Dortmund’s victory solidified Nuri Sahin’s status as, at the moment, the Bundesliga’s best midfielder. The 22-year old was outstanding in distribution, and netted a brilliant free kick. His play seems to be almost effortless - elegant is the only way to describe his play. At the moment, not even Bastian Schweinsteiger is worthy of polishing Sahin’s boots.
-On the topic of Schweinsteiger, the Bayern man has sustained a ligament injury, and will miss Germany’s upcoming Euro 2012 qualifiers against Turkey and Kazakhstan. At the time of this publication, it has yet to be revealed how long he will be sidelined, but at this moment, Bayern coach Louis van Gaal must be cursing his luck. Schweinsteiger was one of very few Bayern players to exhibit any kind of form thus far.
-Still on the topic of Bayern, here’s a joke. Following the Dortmund match, captain Mark van Bommel, with typical reserve, said, “In every game, we are the better team.”
-More interesting than Van Bommel’s words were those of Uli Hoeness, who said, “The time has come for us to stop deceiving ourselves.”
Deceiving themselves...like believing that without summer transfers, their squad had both the quality and depth required to win the Bundesliga? Or was he making a not-so-subtle reference to the contract extension offered to coach Louis van Gaal last week, despite Bayern being off to their worst ever start to a Bundesliga campaign?
-Life in Gelsenkirchen isn’t any better, though Schalke’s problems are being met with a bit more anger. After his team lost 2-1 to Nuernberg, coach Felix Magath fumed: “I am absolutely unhappy with what my team showed today...These are difficult times for Schalke, for our fans, and hopefully also for the players. Probably some of them were already thinking about the trip home and to their national teams.”
Schalke still have just four points from seven matches, and remain in 17th place domestically. They were outstanding in midweek against Benfica (fully deserving of their 2-0 victory), but Saturday’s performance proved they have yet to turn the corner, at least as a collective team.
Meanwhile, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar has quietly scored five goals in his last five games in all competitions. All he needs is a little more support from an otherwise faltering team.
-Papiss Demba Cisse: seven goals in as many matches. Freiburg: fifth in the table and ahead of Bayern, Schalke, Bremen, Hamburg, Wolfsburg, and Stuttgart. Who would have thought?
-Patrick Helmes: seven appearances for club and country, eight goals. And yet he was omitted from Loew’s squad for the Euro qualifiers. Surprising, isn’t it?
Teutonic Tuesday: Title Race Taking Shape Already As 70-Point Plateau Slips From Hopefuls’ Sights
![Teutonic Tuesday: Title Race Taking Shape Already As 70-Point Plateau Slips From Hopefuls’ Sights]()
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